Forecasts for 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Largely Unchanged

July 28, 2011

 

Storm Don's current track

 

Forecasters at Weather Services International stuck with their earlier prediction that the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season would bring 15 tropical storms, with eight of those growing into hurricanes.

 

Four of those were expected to strengthen into “major” hurricanes of Category 3 or higher on the five-step Saffir-Simpson intensity scale, with top winds of at least 110 miles per hour, the private forecaster said.

 

WSI’s July update was unchanged from its April, May and June forecasts for the Atlantic-Caribbean storm season that runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

 

There have been three tropical storms but no hurricanes so far this season in the Atlantic basin, where activity is highest from August to October.

 

Several other forecasting groups have also predicted a busier-than-average hurricane season this year. The long-term average for the Atlantic-Caribbean season is 11 or 12 tropical storms, with six or seven hurricanes and two or three major hurricanes.

 

The latest predictions for the 2011 tropical storm/hurricane season are as follows:                                                                                                                  

 

                        Number of storms   Hurricanes      Major Hurricanes

NOAA                         12-18              6-10                            3-6

CSU                            16                   9                                  5

AccuWeather             15                    8                                  4