2012 Hurricane Season to be "normal" except for this storm off Canaveral
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL
FORMED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN AT 26/0300 UTC. THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL
AT 26/1200 UTC IS NEAR 32.0N 76.0W...ABOUT 175 MILES/280 KM SE
OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA...AND 240 MILES/385 KM ESE OF
BERYL IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD 4
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N78W AT THE CUBA COAST...TO 26N74W BEYOND 32N70W. A 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
FOR FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...ENDING AT 25/1200 UTC...IS 9.70
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N46W 7N48W 2N49W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...AND
TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N66W...TO CURACAO...
TO 10N70W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS ON TOP OF LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA...AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LAKE WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 9N69W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W.
MIAMI, Florida -- NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook due to a non-tropical low pressure system that has become better defined in the Atlantic off the coast of South Florida.
The notice, which does not require implementation of hurricane preparations, followed within ours of the announcement by the Hurricane Center that the rest of the season ought to be “Normal.”
Despite the extraordinary beginning, including 10 inches of flood in rain in a few hours in Doral, west of Miami, the experts say conditions in the atmosphere and the ocean favor a near-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin this season.
For the entire six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says there’s a 70 percent chance of nine to 15 named storms (with top winds of 39 mph or higher), of which four to eight will strengthen to a hurricane (with top winds of 74 mph or higher) and of those one to three will become major hurricanes (with top winds of 111 mph or higher, ranking Category 3, 4 or 5). Based on the period 1981-2010, an average season produces 12 named storms with six hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
NOAA’s outlook predicts a less active season compared to recent years,” said NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D. “But regardless of the outlook, it’s vital for anyone living or vacationing in hurricane-prone locations to be prepared. We have a stark reminder this year with the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew.” Andrew, the Category 5 hurricane that devastated South Florida on August 24, 1992, was the first storm in a late-starting season that produced only six named storms.
"NOAA's improvement in monitoring and predicting hurricanes has been remarkable over the decades since Andrew, in large part because of our sustained commitment to research and better technology. But more work remains to unlock the secrets of hurricanes, especially in the area of rapid intensification and weakening of storms,” said Lubchenco. “We're stepping up to meet this challenge through our Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project, which has already demonstrated exciting early progress toward improving storm intensity forecasts."
In fact, new NOAA technology predicted the development of the tropical system that blossomed off North Florida last week, almost a full week in advance, as reported here exclusively at South East Shipping News.
That technology suggested half dozen different tracks for a tropical system now emerging over Florida, and suggests a 70% Chance of a Memorial Day Weekend Tropical Storm for Central Florida.
NOAA says that there is some potential for additional development into a tropical or subtropical cyclone late Saturday or early Sunday during the 2012 Memorial Day Weekend as the system moves northeastward into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
The low will produce high seas off the southeastern Florida Atlantic coast which is bad news for boaters where Memorial Day weekend is traditionally a busy day for recreational boating and fishing.
The low is approximately 200 miles south-southeast of Port Canaveral, Florida. Other busy cruise ports along South Florida such as the Port of Palm Beach, Port of Miami, and Port Everglades near Fort Lauderdale, Florida may also have local seas affected by this low pressure system. Cruise passengers should check often with their particular cruise line for local weather updates affecting cruise itineraries.
As of 12:55 p.m. today, the low has a medium chance (40%) of becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. This is an increase from the 20% chance given by NOAA earlier this morning.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours: