Tropical Storm a Possibility for Caribbean
CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI AND W OF THE AREA ON SAT. THE TROPICAL
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN LATE SAT AND SUN...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 14N44W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR
10N45W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-13N
BETWEEN 43W-48W. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW/WAVE IS ABOUT 870 NM TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 13 TO 17 KT. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
Thunder in the Eastern Caribbean Jamaica to Cuba
THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE SW COAST OF CUBA NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH SW ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE AND EXTENDING AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W AND E ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N TO OVER THE N CARIBBEAN BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND W CUBA INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA.
Fair weather off Central America
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ALONG 9N ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING.
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