The dangers of space weather
By Christie Nicholson | March 11, 2012, 1:31 PM PDT
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The most powerful solar storms in the last five years threatened to wreak havoc with our digital systems on Earth last week. To find out just what solar storms are, why they are in the news recently and why we are more vulnerable to them than ever before, Smart Planet turned to space weather expert Bill Murtagh, program coordinator for the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.
SmartPlanet: So what is a solar storm?
Bill Murtagh: Solar storm is loose term to capture the bigger picture of what we call space weather. From the solar flare we get emissions of radiation that affect the Earth environment and then there is an eruption associated with that flare that causes a geomagnetic storm. The whole thing we call a solar storm or space weather.
SP: Are the emissions the coronal mass ejection?
BM: Yes, the coronal mass ejection blasts the billions of tons of plasma that escapes out from the sun sometimes impacting Earth creating geomagnetic storming. This is all part of the solar storm, also known as our space weather.
SP: Presumably other events can be a part of what we call space weather?
BM: From our perspective it is just from the sun. We do get high-energy radiation from deep space. We use the term galactic cosmic radiation, but that doesn’t vary much. It does vary over the 11-year solar cycle but we don’t get pulses and events based on the galactic cosmic radiation. So essentially all the space weather we are interested in has its origin right there, on the sun.
SP: Why do we need to study space weather?
BM: It’s largely because of our reliance on advanced technology for everything we do today. We’ve always had some concern with space weather for as long as we’ve had technology. Back in 1859 we had a big solar flare that impacted the telegraph system of the day.
But consider what has happened on Earth in the last 10 or 15 years. Our reliance on cell phones. Our reliance on GPS, which now pervades society. Our reliance on satellites for so much of what we do. It is these very technologies that are vulnerable to space weather. We have to understand the space environment and understand what we need to do to mitigate the effect of it on the technology we rely on. Because when we lose this technology for any length of time it can be anywhere from a little bit bothersome to bordering catastrophic.
SP: How do we mitigate space weather’s impact?
BM: Well it depends on which sectors are impacted. Take one technology, like aircraft. If you are going to fly from the United States to Asia typically you will fly over the north pole. Last year we had 11,000 flights over the polar regions. The radiation from these solar storms flows in along Earth’s magnetic lines concentrated at the polar regions. And it really impacts the communications of the aircraft and even the navigational systems. So the airlines, when they get the storm warnings, they reroute the flights, and get them away from the polar regions. That’s happened several times over the last couple of days.
SP: How do you measure the seriousness of space weather?
BM: We use a solar radiation scale of 1 through 5, with 5 being extreme. This week we’ve been at the 3-level. And a 3-level radiation storm is a threshold where airlines will reroute flights away from the poles.
SP: Was there anything really that unusual about the storms that happened this week? Or was it just a media frenzy? I don’t recall this much attention being paid to the solar cycle 11 years ago.
BM: Yes, good question. There’s nothing really exceptional about this week’s event. There are three different types of space weather that we measure and we did hit the 3-level on each of the three types with this particular outbreak. Now that is the first time that’s happened during this solar cycle.
But today, as opposed to over a decade ago, we have a whole new media landscape for this cycle, with the web and blogs. So people are just a lot more aware of things that are happening and there is a lot more communication across the globe, period. There has been a lot of attention paid to space weather in the last four or five years.
Because we started looking back at the big events in 1859 and 1921 and recognizing they were much larger than anything we’ve seen in recent history and should one of them occur today the impact could be very significant on the nation. So it’s got the attention of the highest levels of government. Consequently it’s getting a lot more attention.
SP: You mentioned there are three types of space weather? What are the three types?
BM: The first is the R-scale which is the solar flare radio blackouts. The electromagnetic emission from the flare is impacting Earth, at the speed of light. We have 93 million miles from the sun to here, and it takes only 8 minutes to get here and we’d feel certain types of effects. It can impact GPS devices.
Within about an hour or two after that we start looking for particle radiation. We call this our S-scale, the solar radiation scale. This would affect satellites and this is what NASA would be worried about regarding astronaut protection. And it also impacts the airlines.
And the third type of space weather is the geomagnetic storm, the G-scale. Which is caused by the enormous blasts of material from the sun. It usually takes a couple of days before it impacts the Earth. And that is what we had Friday morning, the G-3 conditions, with Aurora Borealis [Northern Lights] visible in the northern states.
SP: NOAA seems to have a long history of studying space weather, you mentioned the 1859 event. How far back do the records go?
BM: It depends on what we are measuring. One of the oldest records, by far, is the sun spot records. If you could look at the sun with a welder’s mask or look at it during sun set you can see sun spots. So even 2,000 years ago the Chinese records make references to sun spots. And we have excellent observations and drawings of sun spots dating back to the 16th Century. Galileo sun spot drawings are kept in the Vatican. So it’s very useful for us to see the sun spot cycles dating back hundreds of years.
We could measure the Earth’s magnetic field back in the mid-19th Century because during that big 1859 storm—we refer to it as the Carrington Flare—we had magnetometers in place at observatories in London that detected the disturbance in the Earth’s magnetic field.
The other big record of these storms and when they occurred is records of the Northern Lights and the southern extent of the Northern Lights. Our friends in Canada and Alaska are used to seeing the Northern Lights, but picture what happened in 1921 with a geomagnetic storm so strong that the Northern Lights were visible in Cuba and Jamaica.
So we have records from the mariners of old who kept the records of weather conditions and sightings of the aurora, so we have a good sense of how strong these storms were, dating back hundreds of years. More modern satellite measurements only date back to the 60s.
SP: And when was the most recent largest geomagnetic storm?
BM: The one in 1989 was the most significant one in the last 50 years. The 1859 and the 1921 were quite a bit stronger than this one. But it was the 1989 one that brought the electric power down in Quebec and caused disturbances as far south as Virginia.
SP: So is it really an exact pattern of an 11-year cycle?
BM: Sometimes that 11-year cycle can mislead people. It’s an 11-year cycle but we only need one rogue group of sun spot activity to cause the potential problems on Earth. Some of the biggest ones occurred in October of 2003, December of 2005 and January 2006. So even four or five years after the maximum peak of the cycle things can happen. There was little actively in 2008 or 2009. Big things can happen anytime over a seven year period.
SP: So the number of solar storms doesn’t necessarily mean more danger? All it takes is one bad storm at any point during the cycle?
BM: Yes, correct.
SP: What causes the 11-year cycle? What causes frequency and what causes severity of the storms? Do we have any idea?
BM: Not really. The differential rotation of the sun and the fact that it’s one big plasma ball. We don’t understand why it’s an 11-year cycle and not 21 or 41 or 51. That is not understood.
SP: Are we curious about that? Or is it not that important?
BM: Well, what we would like to know is the magnitude of the sun spot cycles. One interesting fact when we look back on the historical record. Series of very low sun spot cycles 1640-1715. For 75 years they were practically non-existent. That period happened to coincide with the coldest period of the mini-ice age. So the outputs of the sun being diminished for an extended period will influence climate. How much is the big question.
But we would like to know if that could happen within the next 50 years. We’d like to be able to predict when the cycles will be big or small.
SP: What can you predict today?
BM: When I look at the sun today and point to a narrow sun spot group we know there is potential for eruption. We have ways of measuring that sun spot group and its complexity and I can put out a prediction indicating a 60 or 70 percent chance of a big flare.
What is missing is that we cannot tell from the sun spot if it will be a big solar flare or not. So I can’t give immediate warning of a flare. Now the other two types of space weather, yes I can provide some warning but all I can give is some probabilistic warning, based on the size of sun spots, that something is likely.
SP: It’s a good thing the sun is so far away then.
BM: Yes we have that 93 million mile distance and over time we have fortunately developed the Earth’s magnetic field and it and our atmosphere provides tremendous shelter from this harmful radiation.
SP: All of this reminds me of our vulnerability to terrorist attacks in the form of a nuclear explosion in the atmosphere just above the U.S.
BM: A nuclear device detonated in space above us could be a very significant thing. Could have a much bigger consequence than one detonated downtown in a city. Because of what that electromagnetic pulse does to our technology would be very significant. There are three phases of pulsing from such a nuclear device detonated in space. And the sort of emissions that would be emitted are the key emissions that we don’t get from the sun down here on Earth. Those would knock out our sensitive electronics here. Over the U.S. it could impact all sorts of systems. The third emission is somewhat similar to the impact from a geomagnetic storm. But from the sun’s emissions we do not have to build those cages and lead shields to protect our data equipment. Our electrical grid may be vulnerable to the sun. But we are not going to see the same kind of pulse that we can see from a nuclear device detonated over the country.
Liberty Property Acquires 126 Acres for Tradeport Industrial Park
REIT Plans to Break Ground Late Next Year On First Phase of 1.6 Million-Square-Foot Development
December 21, 2011
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MIT is planned to include up to 1.6 million square feet of institutional-grade warehouse and distribution space and create 4,000 new construction jobs, with 2,000 full-time jobs upon completion. Butters Construction & Development, a Coconut Creek-based development company, will oversee construction of the new park, according to CBRE, which brokered the transaction.
Liberty, which acquired the former limestone quarry from cement and concrete firm Tarmac America, expects final zoning approval in January and plans to start construction on the first phase of speculative, multi-tenant distribution buildings in late 2012, along with basic park infrastructure.
The project will be built over the next five to seven years.
The acquisition marks Liberty’s entrance into Miami-Dade County, said Andy Petry, vice president and city manager for the Malvern, PA-based REIT. "We feel there is a tremendous opportunity for well-designed and well-located industrial product in Miami-Dade County, and we are excited to begin development and to grow our footprint in South Florida."
Driven by robust cargo operations at Miami International Airport and the expansion of the Port of Miami and the Panama Canal to allow super-sized cargo ships, vacancy rates for the county’s Class A industrial buildings west of Miami International Airport have steadily fallen over the last year to below 5%. Gross rents have risen to more than $8 per square foot.
"Miami is quickly becoming one of the top industrial gateway cities in the United States and is considered, along with Southern California, as one the über-core markets, where all the institutional real estate owners must have a presence," said Malcolm Butters, president of the firms which has built more than 10 million square feet of commercial space in South Florida. "This site was clearly one of the last large land tracts available in western Miami-Dade County for industrial development and will enable us to attract large users."
Christian Lee and Chris Riley, both vice chairmen, led the transaction for CBRE.
Please see CoStar COMPs #2227250 for more information on this transaction.
CBP Announces Pilots for Rail and Sea e-Manifest
Agency and Trade Pilot New Manifest System
(Friday, December 16, 2011)
Washington — U.S. Customs and Border Protection today announced that it has been successfully receiving manifests in the Automated Commercial Environment (ACE) e-Manifest. The pilots, which began in November, focus on transitioning full rail and sea manifest capability to ACE from the legacy system. In addition, CBP announced that thirteen CBP ports have successfully begun accepting and processing sea and rail manifests in ACE.
“ACE is part of the CBP modernization process that is essential to facilitating trade and security, speeding the flow of commerce into the country,” said Commissioner Alan D. Bersin. “The success of these pilots is demonstrative of CBP’s continuing commitment to trade automation.”
During the pilots, CBP will operate rail and sea manifest in both ACE and the Automated Commercial System (ACS) to allow trade partners ample time to implement the required programming changes prior to the decommissioning of ACS for rail and sea manifest. The pilots also allow for a smooth data transition from the legacy system.
CBP plans to announce the decommissioning of the legacy system for rail and sea manifest through the Federal Register after the successful completion of the test and the acceptance of ACE as the replacement system for rail and sea manifests. The notice will commence a six-month timeframe in which ACE will become the only CBP-approved electronic data interchange through which rail and sea manifests may be transmitted.
The Automated Commercial Environment (ACE) is a multi-year project to modernize the business processes essential to securing U.S. borders, speeding the flow of legitimate shipments, and targeting illicit goods. ACE is a key part of CBP’s layered defense to facilitate trade and border security.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection is the unified border agency within the Department of Homeland Security charged with the management, control and protection of our nation's borders at and between the official ports of entry. CBP is charged with keeping terrorists and terrorist weapons out of the country while enforcing hundreds of U.S. laws.
American Airlines files for Chapter 11 protection
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American Airlines' parent company AMR Corporation has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
Shares in the airline plunged 85% when they resumed trading on Tuesday. They are now worth 25 cents each.
The company expects the airline to continue to operate as normal throughout the bankruptcy process.
Speculation about AMR's financial position surfaced in recent weeks after cost-cutting negotiations failed.
AMR said agreements with its workforce forced it to spend $600m (£384m) more than other airlines on staff costs.
The airline employs 78,000 staff worldwide and operates out of five major US hubs.
Chapter 11 refers to a section of the US Bankruptcy Code. It protects a company from its creditors, giving it time to reorganise its debts or sell parts of the business.
American Airlines was the only one of the major US airlines operating international routes not to file for bankruptcy after the September 11th terrorist attacks.
Its competitors have successfully used bankruptcy to restructure their labour contracts and cut costs.
Changes at the board
The company also announced that Gerard Arpey, the Chief Executive of AA has retired and would be replaced by the company's president, Thomas Horton.
Mr Horton said the board had unanimously decided to file for bankruptcy on Monday night.
He announced that American would be looking to change its employees' terms and conditions. "We plan to initiate further negotiations with all of our unions to reduce our labour costs to competitive levels," he said.
David Bates, president of the Allied Pilots Association conceded that employment terms would change. "The 18-month timeline allotted for restructuring will almost certainly involve significant changes to the airline's business plan and to our contract."
Mr Horton insisted that the company would emerge in more robust health: "I am confident American will emerge even stronger as a global leader known for excellence and innovation."
He added that during the restructuring the airline would reduce its flight schedule in the US "modestly" with a corresponding reduction in staff.
Mr Horton said no single factor had led to the decision to file for Chapter 11 but the company needed to cut costs. He pointed to weak demand and high fuel prices, which have risen more than 50% in the last five years.
British Airways
British Airways operates an international partnership with AA on transatlantic routes and are both part of the One World alliance.
American also has a joint venture with Japan Airlines.
British Airways' parent company IAG said in a statement: "We have every confidence in the future of American Airlines. We are pleased they are taking this step which shows commitment and determination.
The statement added: "Our joint business, which is a revenue sharing agreement, continues to operate as usual."
Reversal of fortunes
American Airlines was the world's biggest airline three years ago but has since fallen behind Delta and United after they bought out other airlines. Delta filed for bankruptcy in 2005 and United was one of the first to do so in 2002.
Unlike other major US airlines, AA has not returned to profit in the last two years. AMR Corporation lost $162m in the third quarter of 2011 and has reported losses in 14 of the last 16 quarters.
The global economic crisis has had a huge impact on the airline industry in general. Ashley Steel, transport expert at KPMG, thinks travel companies will have to adapt as businesses and individuals cut costs and fly less. "This will create more pressure on governments and regulators to allow airlines to merge cross border," he said.
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