Space weather blog reveals three day solar storm
Evolution from pretty to dangerous
by Rick Eyerdam
On June 11 the report was benign.
SHAPE-SHIFTING SUNSPOT: As it pops and crackles with low level solar flares, sunspot AR1504 is rapidly evolving. During the past 24 hours the active region has shape-shifted from an irregular dumbbell into a dark ring of magnetism wide enough to circumscribe a half-dozen planet Earths:
On June 12 the situation on the sun seemed to be diminishing.
SUBSIDING GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A minor geomagnetic storm that crested during the opening hours of June 12th is subsiding now. At maximum, it ranked 5 on the 0-to-9 K-index scale of magnetic disturbances and turned the skies purple over Dawsonville, New Brunswick.
Within 24 hours the situation on the Sun change dramatically.
NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of M-class solar flares today as the sunspot's magnetic field shifts and destabilizes. Eruptions later this week could be geoeffective (that’s fedspeak for impacting the earth) as the sunspot turns to face Earth.
Later in the day on June 13, the tone changes again.
CHANCE OF FLARES: NOAA forcasters estimate a 40% chance of M-class solar flares today as a phalanx of sunspots turns toward Earth. The most likely source of geoeffective eruptions is sunspot AR1504, which has grown into an active region almost 10 times wider than Earth.
As predicted, the sunspot has flared. Magnetic fields above AR1504 erupted on June 13th at 1319 UT, producing a long-duration M1-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme UV glow of the blast:
Within hours this update the first threat of a Coronal Mass Ejection was mentioned. .
The ongoing explosion is taking hours to unfold, which means it is very powerful despite its middling M1-peak. Long duration flares often hurl coronal mass ejections (CMEs) into space, and this one is probably no exception. Stay tuned for updates about a possible Earth-directed CME.
On the morning of June 14, today this notice was posted but without mentioning that the Mars Science Laboratory, in the immediate vicinity of Mars, will also endure a glancing blow from the “cloud” of tons of super heated ionized plasma traveling a million miles per hour.
CME TARGETS VENUS, EARTH MARS: Active sunspot AR1504 erupted on June 13th at 1319 UT, producing a long-duration M1-flare and hurling a CME into space. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud will deliver a glancing blow to three planets: Venus on June 15th, Earth on June 16th, and Mars on June 19th.
NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% - 30% chance of geomagnetic storms when the cloud reaches Earth. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras. Solar flare alerts: text, voice.
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